Chimerica on the rocks

Dr. Ferguson wonders if the Chimerica experiment will drift apart and what that might mean for the $13 trillion US debt:

For a time Chimerica seemed like a marriage made in heaven: both economies grew so fast that they accounted for about 40 percent of global growth between 1998 and 2007. The big question now is whether or not this marriage is on the rocks. America’s highly indebted consumers just can’t borrow anymore. The U.S. savings rate is soaring upward, and U.S. imports from China have slumped, down 18 percent between May 2008 and May 2009. Of course, that doesn’t mean the Chinese are going to stop buying dollars. They dare not allow their currency to appreciate when so many jobs in the export sector are under threat. But it does mean that they are questioning the Chimerica strategy.

Filed under: International, National , national debt, Chimerica

More tactical errors in Afghanistan

This is about the worst mistake we could make in Afghanistan. We should have been out of there a long time ago.

U.S. commanders say the addition of drug traffickers to a “kill or capture” list is legal and an essential part of their new plan to disrupt the flow of drug money to the Taliban.

Why are we there anyway?

Once we become an oppressive occupier in their minds we are finished.

Related.

Filed under: International, National

“Blood stained velvet, dirty lace”

Happy or Merry Bastille Day, which ever your preference is. I can’t decide which is more important: French bloodlust or Canadian progressive rock.

I prefer the latter.

Filed under: International, Music , Bastille Day, rush

Any questions?

Reuters:

If it were in a position to do so, Al Qaeda would use Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in its fight against the United States, a top leader of the group said in remarks aired on Sunday.

Filed under: International , Al Qaeda, existential threat

Change Twitter settings to support protesters

If you use Twitter, you can support the protesters in Iran by changing your time zone to Tehran and using the #IranElection hashtag to make it harder for censors in Iran.

More options.

Facebook updates from Tehran.

#IranElection#

Filed under: International , #IranElection, Iran, Iranian elections

I’m praying for their success

Video of Riot police shooting at the crowd in Iran.

Happening today.

Filed under: International , #IranElection, Iran, Iranian elections

Bravery

Tank Man

We have two historical anniversaries this week that exemplify bravery and the spirit of the individual overcoming the coldness of the machine.

D-Day is later this week and there’s not a lot I can add to what’s already been said over the years.

In my lifetime, though, the image of a lone, white shirted man standing in front of a line of Chinese tanks bound for the killing floor at Tiananmen Square easily stands out as the bravest thing I have ever seen.

I’ve often wondered if I could be brave enough to stand up for what I believe in despite the societal implications that might follow. This fellow, unknown to this day, did just that.

It’s kind of strange to admire someone so unknown. I hope that his act resulted in some good for himself or the cause he stood for.

We need many more people like this lone Chinese student who stood in the way of a column of tanks 20 years ago.

The NY Times has a great article about the incident and the thoughts of four photographers who captured the moment.

Filed under: Concepts, International , bravery, tank man, Tiananmen Square

Open letter to Kim Jong-Il

Dear Kim: Please listen to this Peter Tosh jam and then GET A GRIP!

Filed under: International, Music , Kim Jong-Il, No Nuclear War, North Korea, nuclear proliferation, Peter Tosh

A gut-wrenching level of myopia

So I had some time last night and watched a 2007 documentary film on the Iraq war, “No End in Sight“.

Laying aside all questions of partisanship and bias on behalf of the makers of the film, and looking at it from the viewpoint of historical analysis, this film is a must see for any Republican or conservative.

It is a must see because it lays out in rich detail (not to mention adorned with incredible footage from the front lines) the failure and complete lack of rationality behind the Bush administration’s plan for transition.

There is no question that our soldiers and military commanders are the best the world has seen. They haven’t lost a major battle since Kasserine.

But in a fashion that likely exceeds Vietnam for ineptitude, our policy makers in Washington utterly failed to enact and carry out a comprehensive plan.

Don’t take my word for it. Watch the film.

And if you are a Republican, dedicate yourself to never again allowing blind loyalty to a cadre to trump common sense, military history and justice.

Filed under: International, National , Iraq, Jay Garner, Paul Bremmer, War In Iraq

Contrasts

This morning I read in my local paper that 73 percent of students at my local community college are in need of remedial education. That’s reading and math, primarily.

Later in the day I sold a piece of equipment to a customer in China. Their shipping address of “Guangzhou Science City” piqued my interest so I looked it up.

Seems the Chinese have built two “science cities” from scratch as part of a national initiative launched in 1992. One of the science cities is home to 40 universities.

We need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Filed under: International, National, North Carolina , Guangzhou Science City, Rockingham Community College

They want to drill where?

Devastation off the coast of Queensland ruins 40 miles of popular beaches in Australia:

The full scale of the environmental disaster off the Queensland coast has become clearer as the shipping company admitted its earlier estimates of the oil spill’s size were “substantially” wrong and the length and the cost of the clean-up were revised upwards by the State Government.

An oil slick measuring tens of kilometres is staining the shore along Sunshine Coast beaches, Bribie Island and Moreton Island.

Filed under: International, North Carolina , drill here, drill now, north carolina coast, OCS drilling, oil spill

A move toward protectionism

Doug Clark examines some of the questions surrounding the “Buy American” frenzy associated with the stimulus bill:

“(A Business Week report) notes that some “buy American” requirements have been in place for years. There are limitations, the article states. For example, the rules don’t apply “if they’ll increase the cost of the overall project by more than 25%.”

When you’re talking about projects costing hundreds of billions of dollars, potentially overpaying by up to 25 percent adds up to a huge penalty for taxpayers. Not many of us could manage our household budgets that way, no matter how much we might want to limit our personal spending to the immediate neighborhood.”

Filed under: International, National, North Carolina , Buy American, larry kissell, protectionism, US trade policy

“On Sundays I elude the eyes …”

Filed under: International , red barchetta, rush

Kasparov’s most gutsy move

I saw a feature on Kasparov last year on 60 Minutes. Being who he is, I’m sure he’s got a stratagem up his sleeve. I hope he closes well.

Garry Kasparov was one of the most exalted names in Russia when he made the most fateful decision of his life.

It would lead to him being arrested, beaten and thrown into jail. The mention of Mr Putin’s name produces a remarkable transformation from brooding chess genius to a master of rhetorical fury.

“Putin’s regime is doomed,” he declares. “My country will pay a huge price for having this regime ruin the country, looting it, destroying it.”

BBC audio interview.

Filed under: International , Gary Kasparov, Putin, Russia

“I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy …”

I think this is how future wars will get their start:

All gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine were shut down Wednesday as the pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine escalated. The European Union called for an immediate solution to the crisis.

The cutoff showed the first signs of hitting the European economy as the Hungarian unit of the Japanese automaker Suzuki said it was halting production because of restrictions on industrial users of gas. The Hungarian news agency MTI quoted a spokeswoman as saying Suzuki hoped to restart production Monday.

A view from the continent:

Fears of a deep chill spread across Europe yesterday after a row between Russia and Ukraine over gas prices cut supplies to the rest of the continent on a day of plummeting temperatures and heavy snowfalls.

The European Union said the situation was “completely unacceptable” as thousands of businesses were urged to switch fuels, and households struggled to keep warm in sub-zero temperatures. But there was no sign of an end to the standoff between Russia’s energy monopoly Gazprom and Ukraine, locked in battle since New Year’s Day.

In a juxtaposition that can only be termed unfortunate, it seems Putin has not cut off the supply of Russian beauties as advertised via multiple ads on the page containing the above story.

Filed under: International , economic warfare, natural gas, Russia, ukraine

“Mr. Putin says we will fre-eze you”

The Kremlin accuses Ukraine of stealing natural gas from pipelines bound for the EU. With the drastic fall in oil prices, it’s no wonder the Sovie…, er, Russians, are looking to make up the revenue somewhere:

In a telephone interview, Bohdan Sokolovsky, the Ukrainian president’s representative on energy issues, denied any theft and accused Russia of attempting to strong-arm Ukraine into accepting a crippling price hike. He said the reduction in shipments could cause pressure in the pipelines to fall and trigger a shutdown as soon as next week.

This is another reason we need to push for sustainable energy for residential consumption. We can’t continue to let greed thugs hold democracies hostage by threatening energy supplies.

It goes beyond liberal/conservative and “global warming: true or false.”

On a historical note, I guess this song is still relevant.

Filed under: International , natural gas, russians, ukraine

Disengage?

WSJ:

“A recent survey by the Chicago Council on World Affairs found that 36% of respondents agreed that the U.S. should “stay out of world affairs,” the highest number recorded since this question was first asked in 1947. The economic crisis could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

In the past, the American political process has managed to yield up remarkable leaders when they were most needed. As voters go to the polls in the shadow of an impending world crisis, they need to ask themselves which candidate — based upon intellect, courage, past experience and personal testing — is most likely to rise to an occasion as grave as the one we now face.”

Filed under: International, National

… and then the bottom fell out

NYT:

“As the price of oil roared to ever higher levels in recent years, the leaders of Venezuela, Iran and Russia muscled their way onto the world stage, using checkbook diplomacy and, on occasion, intimidation.

Now, plummeting oil prices are raising questions about whether the countries can sustain their spending — and their bids to challenge United States hegemony.

For all three nations, oil money was a means to an ideological end.”

Filed under: International , international relations, Iran, petro dollars, price of oil, Russia, Venezuela

Patton addresses the current War In Iraq

“This is not a god damn video game.”

“Well, you won’t have to say ‘I listened to far left bullshit and sat on my ass and was more concered about American Idol than I was about American security and freedom.’”

Filed under: International, National , George S. Patton, War In Iraq

Obama wrong on free trade with Colombia

For what my little ole opinions are worth, I hope to write some short posts over the next week outlining specific policy stances in which I disagree with Sen. Obama.

For starters, I disagree with his opposition to the Colombia Free Trade Agreement.

Free trade is part of innovation. It can’t be stopped. It can be delayed and stymied by government intervention, like propping up the auto industry to placate union bosses, or failing to put left wing guerrillas in their proper place.

Trade is dictated in part by the iron law of wages, which is why jobs move to where the cost of labor and the skill of the worker are in closest balance.

As I heard some economists discussing on a recent radio show, free trade pulls those in advanced consumer economies into higher tech manufacturing and skilled service jobs. It pushes the lower skilled jobs to where the wages are lowest.

Thus, those in advanced economies are required to innovate in order to maintain their state of being “advanced”

It’s not a painless process. As the progeny of working class generations before me, I know well about the pain of downsizing and worker displacement. But the mettle of a society is how it reacts to challenges. We’ve never been a people that cotton to stagnation.

Holding up a free trade agreement with our top ally in that area in deference to placating union bosses is pretty short sighted. I guess it plays well to a certain Democratic demographic.

Here’s how one former NYT reporter, now a prof at Harvard, viewed the situation:

“All sides agree that the killings are dramatically down, and no one accuses the government of orchestrating them. By the unions’ own count, the killings dropped from a high of 275 in 1996 to 39 last year. The government says 26.

The assumption by the Democrats is that all were killed for union organizing. It is an assumption implied in reports they cite from groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. Those groups, however, rely on Colombian unions for their numbers, instead of collecting their own. The number of convictions now being won in the union’s own cases reveals that perhaps one-fifth, and almost certainly less than half, of the killings had to do with unionism.“

Filed under: International, National , bad policy, Barack Obama, Colombia Free Trade Agreement

What’s taking so long?

I just wanted to mention that we crushed the Nazis and rolled back the Imperial Japanese, simultaneously, in less than four years.

It’s been more than seven since Osama bin Laden attacked us and he is still free. We invaded Iraq more than five and a half years ago.

It shouldn’t be taking this long.

Filed under: Concepts, International, National , Osama bin Laden, War In Iraq, World War II

Off the shelf

From a book I’ll be reading soon.

“The pursuit of freedom, as defined in an age of consumerism, has induced a condition of dependence on imported goods, on imported oil, and on credit. The chief desire of the American people is that nothing should disrupt their access to these goods, that oil, and that credit. The chief aim of the U.S. government is to satisfy that desire, which it does in part of through the distribution of largesse here at home, and in part through the pursuit of imperial ambitions abroad.”

Related.

What I’m reading this weekend.

Filed under: Concepts, International, National , American foreign policy, Andrew Bacevich, The Greatest Tribe, The Limits of Power, War In Iraq

A sustainable repression?

Niall Ferguson, one of the best young historians out there, takes a look at Repression versus Depression:

Cheap money and deficit finance were the techniques recommended by Keynes and others in the 1930s as solutions to the problem of the Depression. They were used and abused in the 1960s and 1970s when there was no depression, with ultimately disastrous inflationary results. But can these techniques work now? So far, what they have achieved is what might be called a Great Repression. They have in effect repressed, but not cured, a depression. The question is whether, as some psychological theories would suggest, repression is a sustainable strategy or whether, at some point, the patient will come out of denial, break down and admit the terrible truth.

Filed under: Concepts, International, National , finance, Keynesian economics, macroeconomics, Niall Ferguson

Web aiding Georgian resistance

An Ed Cone post points to tech companies and smaller nations aiding the Georgian government in the face of Russian cyber attacks against the tiny nation’s access to the web.

Tell the world you support the Georgians here.

Filed under: International

Jeffrey Sykes thoughts for the day on the invasion of Georgia

As bad as Sherman?

Almost.

The Russian invasion of an independent nation is an unacceptable act of brutality that cannot be allowed to stand. The images of shell-shocked women and children and dwelling homes blasted to nothingness are a true symbol of the Bear’s nature.

She has not changed. With Yeltsin dead and Kasparov marginalized, the oligarchs in power are free to resubdue former Russian colonies.

But what can we do about it?

My personal opinion is that we should strike the Russian forces in Georgia with the power available. That means airstrikes and cruise missles. I know its not popular, but it would be justified. The Russian forces are not in Russian territory and should be pounded back to the border where they belong. At least we could hit their tanks and give the Georgian soldiers a chance to defend their honor man to man.

This is no different than the Sudetenland, but not quite the invasion of Poland.

For the West to watch as Russian forces obliterate the national aspirations of free men and women is the ultimate in hypocrisy. Just as in Bosnia 15 years ago, appeasers in the West only stir when you mess their wallets.

Filed under: Concepts, International